Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence predicts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This forecast surpasses all competitors, making the Switch 2 the "clear winner," according to their 2024 Video Game Market Report. Read on for details!

Projected 80 Million Units by 2028

DFC Intelligence's December 17th report positions Nintendo as the console market leader, with Microsoft and Sony lagging behind. The Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release and limited initial competition contribute to this projection. Sales are estimated at 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring unexpected releases) gives it a significant advantage. The report suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's Switch is already a massive success, surpassing PlayStation 2 lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, becoming the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

Robust Growth Predicted for the Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence forecasts a bright future for the video game industry. Founder and CEO David Cole highlights a 20x growth over three decades and predicts a return to healthy growth by the end of the decade after a recent slowdown. 2025 is expected to be a particularly strong year, driven by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI.

The gaming audience is projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" via handheld systems increases accessibility. The firm also notes growth in hardware sales, both PC and consoles, fueled by esports and gaming influencers.